Priority Intelligence Requirements Category

THE STAR ARCHIPELAGO
Instructors Note: This midterm scenario is unrealistically vague in order to better accomplish the course objective to demonstrate understanding of collection management and strategy. Do not get frustrated by the lack of information in the scenario. Rather, focus on filling in the numerous information gaps in order to support the operation. Additionally do not get overly concerned with the operation not conforming to current US military amphibious warfare doctrine. The operation is operationally bounded to focus you on a collection strategy, not an amphibious assault.
The situation:
The enemy (the Medians) have been detected moving forces into the Star Archipelago. The Star Archipelago is a confederated government comprised of the islands of Cheron, Andorria, Vulcan, Xindus, Bolia, Kazon, Tellaria, Talax, Roylan, and Arctus. There are numerous small isles that fringe the larger islands in the group. Little is known about these islands other than they sit astride key sea lines of communication and offer a jumping off point for attacks on our ally’s the homeland. The enemy movement into this area of operations is regarded with extreme worry.
The Medians have occupied at least two of the islands, Xindus and Bolia. It is unknown, however, whether they occupy any other islands in the archipelago. They are believed to have landed two infantry brigades on Xindus and one on Bolia. These units are supported by artillery, engineers, and sustainment forces.
The aggressive move by enemy military forces into the Star Archipelago during a time of open, unrestricted warfare elsewhere is viewed with alarm by the Joint Chiefs of Staff and orders have been issued that within three months US military forces must drive the enemy off the islands they have occupied and establish bases from which they can carry on future operations against the Medians.
What We Know:
The United States has never proactively concerned itself with military planning of any sort involving the Star Archipelago. For much of the last 300 years, this island chain has been under the colonial tutelage of foreign powers (which have changed over time). The result is that virtually nothing is known about the archipelago other than it exists in a tropical climate zone, the existing maps may be representative of size and relative location but are not accurate for location, distance, or any other land features. Trade with the islands is limited to agricultural products that are shipped in and out of all the islands in the group. Knowledge of the maritime conditions is little better. What is known about currents, depths, hazards, reefs, passages, etc., only exists because tramp merchantmen ply the waters. There are no modern navigation aids on the islands; merchant shipping uses only existing knowledge of points and soundings—based on their years of experience plying the waters.
Because of prior colonial influences both English and Spanish are spoken among a limited number of the indigenous population, mostly abbreviated “pidgeon” English or Spanish. The indigenous population size and location is generally unknown, but most are spread along the coastlines near fruit and coconut plantations. There are a few larger villages. The largest known population center is on Bolia, the former colonial seat of government and now the archipelago’s administrative center. There is no formal contact or relationship between the Star Archipelago and the US government. Without any State Department presence there has been no US military or intelligence presence on the islands.
While nearly all named islands in the archipelago are large enough to host major airfields, there are no runways or air traffic of any sort to and from the islands. Because of the agricultural economy and reliance of merchant shipping for transport of such products there hasn’t been an economic reason to build modern air traffic facilities. It is believed the terrain is too rough to build modern runways at a reasonable expense and jungle or dense plantations cover practically all the island.
In addition to the unimproved infrastructure and in line with the undeveloped agrarian economy there is known to be an extremely limited coastal highway that circumnavigates Xindus, and any roads on any other islands exist only to move agricultural products to piers for shipping. Tellaria, Vulcan, and Andorria are believed to have road systems, but given the undeveloped nature of the economy, these are not expected to be much more than tracks through the jungle to connect plantations to rudimentary port facilities.
There is no known significant modern electrical power generation on any of the islands, except Bolia. That power generation capacity is limited to imports of fuel and rudimentary generators. It is not believed that this power production capacity provides 24 hour a day electricity to the island of Bolia. There are no reports of power generation anywhere else in the archipelago, though it is possible such facilities exist. Therefore, communications, radio, telephone, etc., is believed to be extremely limited and exists perhaps only to contact shipping and for farm owners to communicate with each other. If such communications exists, power generation would need to exist in the small villages or on the farms and be maintained by the owners.
There are no military forces per se that exist to defend the Star Archipelago. The only means of resistance to the Median invasion and occupation is dependent on the local police force. The police are made up of locals on each island. They are uniformed but do not carry weapons as a matter of practice. Instead the police force is present to address minor crimes and disputes. Any major crime, of which there has been none committed in recent memory, would be referred to the government administration on Bolia. There are enough policemen to cover all populated areas and villages on all the islands, but on Vulcan or Tellaria, for example, they do not number more than perhaps 20-30 on each island. They present no meaningful military force. For each island, the government on Bolia has assigned a senior inspector of police.
The government on Bolia is poor, revenues amount to little more than what is needed to pay for police and to collect taxes. Modern public services like hospitals do not exist, all chronic and acute hospitalization cases are dealt with by hospitals run by various religious orders on Tellaria, Bolia, Xindus, and Andorria. These hospitals are supplied by ship and are self-supporting for food, electricity, and other hospital needs.
The presence of the Medians is known, but not their numbers or whereabouts. It is possible they control the seat of government in Bolia and have occupied other islands in strength. But any estimate would be nothing but an uneducated guess. The main concern is that Median occupation will lead to the development of major airfields and an extension of enemy airpower that can threaten allied mainland population and industrial centers. It would also provide a base for the movement of several divisions of enemy ground troops forward toward allied shores.
To date, the progress of the war for Media has been immensely successful. They work to seize strategic islands, build airfields, expand their ability to control the airspace and therefore to be able to control shipping and movement. And to provide cover for development of bases and further expansion. The apparent goal of the Median government is to increase the cost of the war and make the defense of such areas as the Star Archipelago so costly that the US would sue for a cease-fire. After all, the reasoning goes, why would the US have any interest in a series of islands that barely have electricity, no running water, no airports, natural resources, or large populations? The reasoning of Median civilian and military leadership is to create the circumstances in which the US would find it more profitable to allow the Medians to occupy and develop than the exorbitant costs involved in defending or engaging in open ground warfare in the region.
The View of the Joint Chiefs:
Median expansion will not stop until the enemy is defeated and pushed back to a pre-war state. For the past eight years the Median military has pushed outward. In many places neighbors have simply surrendered before the fighting began, to avoid the horrors of war. But this expansion has now pressured the United States and its allies and trading partners. The Medians show no signs of stopping and apparently intend on expanding, militarily changing the trade equation. The friendly flow of natural resources and supplies has been slowly squeezed down and the latest move into the Star Archipelago appears to potentially allow enemy airpower to severely disrupt sea lines of communication and cut off the supply of natural resources and products. This latest move has led the Joint Chiefs to recommend that the US “draw the line” and initiate offensive ground operations against the enemy, to push them back out of the Star Archipelago, and to establish a military presence in the region from which future military operations can be launched in a larger strategy of driving the Medians toward an unconditional surrender. The JCS recognizes that the Medians have been expanding for eight years, essentially unchecked, so this decision to launch this counterattack will be against a logistically extended but well-trained and seasoned Median Army and Naval forces (backed by aviation).
It is necessary to begin offensive ground operations in the Star Archipelago within three months. The extremely short time frame is based on a desire to prevent the Medians from developing any airfields on the island or to accumulate a force whose size would guarantee the defeat of any combat offensive. The best avenue for limiting combat operations (at sea, in the air, or on land) and preventing the Medians from establishing air superiority over the Star Archipelago is an early offensive that denies the Medians use of the area and drives them out of the Archipelago all together.
Marine Division (MARDIV) Commander:
The division commander has received an order to locate, attack, and destroy or drive the enemy from the Star Archipelago. Because of military commitments elsewhere the forces available to the MARDIV commander are limited to those directly under his division command and supporting units his including two attached air wings, and a naval surface task force (including surface combat vessels, a single carrier and its screen, and transports and support ships). The naval task force is under separate command and control from the MARDIV commander, but will help support the Marine Division Commander’s intelligence requirements.
Because the only means to seize control of the Archipelago and defeat the enemy is by landing troops across the beach (there are no airfields), and because so little is known about the enemy’s strength and disposition, efforts to develop an operational plan must proceed in parallel with the development of intelligence about the enemy, the terrain, the weather and climate, the local population, and the maritime conditions. Given that so little is known about any of these aspects, the division and regimental intelligence staffs have been tasked with organizing the collection of intelligence, identifying PIRs, and working to feed that information into the operational planning cycles.
The MARDIV Commander has voiced the following guidance and concerns about the operation to the staff:

1. I believe we will begin this offensive operation 60 – 90 days from now. We may have some influence over the exact start point of the operation so we need to identify the factors that will affect the decision to commence offensive operations.
2. We need to carefully select our landing areas to allow us to rapidly build combat power and establish a beachhead before the enemy can counterattack.
3. The Median military has been effective thus far. Their ground forces will be well supported. They have never faced US forces nor have we faced the Medians. This will be a test of their capabilities and resolve. How will they react to our assault? Will they attempt to repel our assault or will they defend in depth?
4. Bolia is the government seat of the Star Archipelago and will be decisive to this operation. However, we have no contact or relationship with this government. We do not know their relationship with the Medians or how they will react to us. We need to make sure that the government and the people of the Star Archipelago understand that we are not their enemy.
5. The limited, austere infrastructure may impact our ability to support operations as we move inland, particularly with continued use of lines of communication. I’m not sure if the inland routes will support offensive operations.
G-2:
That’s you. Your job is to accomplish the following:
1) Looking at the overall situation and MARDIV Commander’s concerns, develop a meaningful set of priority intelligence requirements (PIRs) broken down into the following categories:

a. Weather and climate
b. Terrain
c. Enemy strength and location
d. Enemy intentions
e. Human terrain and infrastructure
f. Any additional categories that you deem necessary
2) For each category above, list 1-2 PIRs.
3) For each PIR identify activities (indicators) and/or targets associated with that PIR. Each activity or target of collection MUST BE linked to a specific PIR
4) For each activity or target identify HOW you intend to collect that information (which INTs are most appropriate for collection). You do not have to specify individual sensors. Limitation: Keep your plan focused on using tactical level collection capabilities found in the MARDIV and the naval task force. Space-based systems or other national technical collection should be considered by exception only.
You will deliver the following for this assignment:
1) List your requirements and break them down for collection. Create an outline, chart, or matrix that contains the following information:
a. All PIRs
b. For each PIR a list of potential indicators and/or targets of collection
c. Methods of collection you recommend for each indicator and/or Target-PIR combination
A very basic matrix might look something like this:
PIR (of enemy intentions) Indicators SIR/Target IMINT COMINT HUMINT
Will Median forces conduct anti-access activities of littorals and beachheads? Establishment of engagement areas near beaches Defensive positions and protective wire
X
X
Obstacles placed vic beaches and inland roads Mines, ditches, or wire along routes or in water
X
Rehearsals to move reinforcing forces HQs communications moving reserve forces
X
Armored columns moving from garrisons to beach areas
X
X
2) Create and SUBMIT a textual description of your planned use of the various INTs
a. IMINT
b. HUMINT
c. ELINT
d. COMINT
e. OSINT
f. CYBERINT
g. MASINT